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MACD指標怎麼看？一篇教你用MACD指標找出最佳買賣點！
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width: 491px; height: auto; z-index: 0; bottom: -230px; } @media (max-width: 599px) { #sticky-article-panel #sticky-panel-background-decoration { width: 488px; bottom: -308px; right: -183px; } } .scroll-to-top { bottom: 165px !important; } #social-channels { bottom: 108px !important; } /*# sourceMappingURL=index.css.map */ </style> <section id="sticky-article-panel"> <div class="desktop-element"> <p class="sticky-panel-subtitle">智匯專屬復盤工具</p> <img class="sticky-panel-illustration-image" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/TW_culture_images/Article%20Image%20Knowledge%20Hub%20TW/right-banner-traders-gym-illustration-2.png" width="220px" /> <p class="sticky-panel-title"><b>Traders' Gym</b><br /> 加強優化您的交易策略</p> </div> <div class="mobile-element"> <p class="sticky-panel-title">智匯<b>復盤工具</b></p> <p class="sticky-panel-subtitle">加強優化您的交易策略</p> <p class="sticky-panel-subtitle-xs">體驗Tradergym復盤工具</p> </div> <a class="sticky-panel-button desktop-element" href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/traders-gym/" target="_blank">免費暢享使用</a> <a class="sticky-panel-button mobile-element" href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/traders-gym/">立即了解</a></section> <p><strong>MACD指標</strong>是一種比較普遍的技術指標。而越是普遍的技術分析，也就代表越多人在以此技術指標為參考，也更值得我們花時間熟悉。但大部分的人都不懂該怎麼精準地去應用MACD指標。<br /> <br /> 通過本文章，我們將從新從零開始認識這個最熟悉的技術指標，學習該如何使用MACD指標找出合適的買賣點以及趨勢的轉折點從而發現更多更有質量的交易機會。</p> <h2>MACD指標是什麼?</h2> <img alt="MACD指標是什麼" src="/getmedia/ee18b55f-6cf5-49b3-8050-838edbd82c5d/macd-indicator.png" title="MACD指標是什麼？" width="100%" /> <p style="text-align: center;">（圖表來源：ThinkTrader）</p> <p><br /> <strong>MACD 指標</strong>（Moving Average Convergence & Divergence）也稱指數平滑異同移動平均線，是基於移動平均線衍化的指標；指數平滑異同移動平均線（MACD）通過<strong>分析比較“短期”與“長期”移動平均線</strong>之間的關係去觀察市場趨勢的變化，從而知道現在市場處於哪種趨勢當中，哪裡有交易信號以及提早發現市場的轉折點。<br /> <br /> 初學者想更仔細地讀懂MACD指標，可以先對<a href="/tw/trading-academy/tech-indicators/simple-moving-average/" target="_blank">移動平均線</a>有一定的基礎了解。這是因為MACD是由兩條移動平均線演變的。</p> <h2>MACD指標怎麼看？</h2> <p>MACD指標是由四個部分組成的，這其中包括<strong>DIF線</strong>、<strong>DEA線</strong>、<strong>MACD柱狀體</strong>和<strong>零線</strong>。每一個部分代表著不同的數據，這些數據都是從原始圖表中獲得的，只是為了讓我們更深入但直觀的方式解讀呈現，所以誕生了MACD指標。</p> <img alt="MACD指標的組成部分" src="/getmedia/cb58faaf-650d-452f-91e1-bf6a87deabc7/components-of-the-macd-indicator.png" title="MACD指標的組成部分" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 以下是關於這四個部分的一些介紹：<br /> </p> <ul> <li>DIF線、快線</li> <li>DEA線、慢線</li> <li>MACD柱狀體</li> <li>零線</li> </ul> <div class="cta-banner-5" onclick="window.open('https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/trading-academy/tradingview-plan/', '_blank')" style="margin-top: 25px"> <style type="text/css">.cta-banner-5 { width: 100%; 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} } .cta-banner-5>div a { width: 114px; font-family: "Noto Sans TC"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 500; font-size: 14px; display: flex; align-items: center; color: #0E1D31 !important; background-color: #5EE15A; text-decoration: none !important; border-radius: 3.33px; justify-content: center; padding: 8px 0px; margin-top: 12px; } @media (max-width: 599px) { .cta-banner-5>div a { font-size: 3.5897435897vw; width: 31.7948717949vw; padding: 0.1744791667vw 0px; aspect-ratio: 124/30; margin-top: 3.0769230769vw; } } .cta-banner-5 .article-banner-illustration { position: absolute; right: 0px; top: -35px; border-radius: 0px 0px 12.47px 0px; } @media (max-width: 599px) { .cta-banner-5 .article-banner-illustration { width: unset; height: 100% !important; right: 0px; top: -10px; margin-top: 0px; } } /*# sourceMappingURL=CTA banner 5.css.map */ </style> <div> <p>智匯為您支付<br /> TradingView訂閱費</p> <a>了解優惠詳情</a></div> <img alt="ThinkTrader Platform with TradingView" class="article-banner-illustration" src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/TW_culture_images/Article%20Image%20Knowledge%20Hub%20TW/tw-article-banner-1-illustration.png" width="222px" /></div> <h3>1. MACD線（DIF線/快線）</h3> <img alt="MACD的快線" src="/getmedia/7719fc68-3aac-40df-8208-9daedddd396e/macd-line.png" title="MACD的快線" width="100%" /> <p><br /> MACD線也稱為 <strong>DIF線(Differential Line)</strong> ，它是短週期均線（16 EMA）與長週期均線（26 EMA）的差離值。MACD線的存在是為了<strong>分析短期價格的變化</strong>。MACD線或DIF線可以是正數，也可以是負數。<br /> </p> <table cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width:100%; border: 2px solid #ddd"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align: center;">MACD快線 = 短週期平均線 - 長週期平均線</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: center"> </p> <ul> <li><strong>正數MACD線：</strong><br /> 代表短週期均線值<strong>大於</strong>長週期均線值，也等於該產品的短線平均價格高於長期平均價格，代表該金融產品處於<strong>上漲</strong>中。</li> <li><strong>負數MACD線：</strong><br /> 代表短週期均線值<strong>小於</strong>長週期均線值，即短線平均價低於長期平均價，代表市場金融產品處於<strong>下跌</strong>中。</li> </ul> <p>MACD線也被稱為快線的原因是它對市場價格的變化最為靈敏。<br /> </p> <h3>2. 信號線（DEA線/慢線）</h3> <img alt="MACD的慢線" src="/getmedia/b87d9028-fe61-4756-af94-d17b02478ada/macd-signal-line.png" title="MACD的慢線" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 簡單地說，信號線（慢線）是MACD線在過去一段時間（一般9天）的平均值。由於是基於過去的MACD數據進行分析，所以也被稱為慢線。信號線的存在是為了<strong>捕捉較為長期的走勢</strong>。<br /> </p> <table cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width:100%; border: 2px solid #ddd"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align: center;">信號線/慢線 = ∑（n個MACD快線） / n<br /> <br /> n= 我們想選擇的時間段</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><br /> 慢線的出現是為了讓我們作為交易員可以更快地發現交易機會。這是要點，也是我們在下一章的會學習的知識。<br /> </p> <h3>3. MACD柱狀體 （Histogram / Divergence）</h3> <img alt="MACD的柱狀圖" src="/getmedia/d522bc6f-b818-4d58-b883-8722b336da0d/macd-histogram.png" title="MACD的柱狀圖" width="100%" /> <p><br /> MACD柱狀體是為了<strong>了解DIF線與DEA線的差值</strong>而誕生的。有了柱狀圖，我們可以更清晰地看到其中的差值。<br /> </p> <table cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width:100%; border: 2px solid #ddd"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align: center;">MACD柱狀圖 = DIF線 - DEA線</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><br /> 柱狀圖也分為正數或者負數。從這些柱狀圖中，我們可以知道：<br /> </p> <ul> <li>柱狀圖為正數：<br /> 快線（DIF線）處於慢線（DEA線）上方</li> <li>柱狀圖為0：<br /> 快線（DIF線）與慢線（DEA線）持平，這是一個交匯點</li> <li>柱狀圖為負數：<br /> 快線（DIF線）處於慢線（DEA線）下方</li> </ul> <h3>4. 零線</h3> <p>零線作為一個參考水平，把快線慢線從正數與負數之間區分開來，起到一個<strong>境界線</strong>的作用，讓我們能更清晰地知道現在MACD的數據到底在哪個區域。<br /> </p> <div class="lr-v1-container" id="lr-v1-1"> <style type="text/css">.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-cta,.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container p{font-family:"Noto Sans TC";font-style:normal;color:#0e1d31!important}.lr-v1-container{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;height:100px;width:100%;background-color:#f2f6f6;box-sizing:border-box;padding:20px 29px;border-radius:15px}.lr-v1-container *{margin:0;padding:0}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:0}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container .lr-v1-subtitle{font-weight:400;font-size:14px;line-height:25px}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container .lr-v1-title{font-weight:900;font-size:23px;line-height:37px}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-cta{width:112px;height:40px;background-color:#5ee15a;border-radius:4px;display:flex;justify-content:center;align-items:center;font-weight:600;font-size:16px;line-height:24px;text-decoration:none !important;} .small-view #lr-v1-1{ flex-direction: column; height: fit-content; } .small-view #lr-v1-1 .lr-v1-text-container{ align-items: center; } .small-view #lr-v1-1 .lr-v1-cta{ margin-top: 16px; } </style> <div class="lr-v1-text-container"> <p class="lr-v1-subtitle">掌握市場趨勢，提升交易策略</p> <p class="lr-v1-title" style="text-align: center">使用MACD指標交易<br /> 4000種產品</p> </div> <a class="lr-v1-cta" href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/register/live?lang=zh-Hant">立即註冊</a></div> <h2>MACD指標的使用方式</h2> <p>MACD指標的用途有很多，最普遍的三種使用方式是通過MACD尋找以下幾種資訊：</p> <h3>1. 如何使用MACD指標觀察價格趨勢？</h3> <p>MACD指標最簡單的使用方法是用來觀察金融產品交易中的趨勢，其中最常見的應用包括<a href="/tw/forex-trading/" target="_blank">外匯交易</a>和<a href="/tw/stocks-trading/" target="_blank">股票交易</a>。交易中趨勢分為兩種：升勢和跌勢。<br /> </p> <ul> <li><strong>升勢：</strong>當快線與慢線都處於零線上方，那該產品一般都在升勢當中。</li> </ul> <img alt="升勢中的MACD" src="/getmedia/78d8ad9e-9c61-4549-bbab-b53e7ca5481c/macd-in-an-uptrend.png" title="升勢中的MACD" width="100%" /> <p> </p> <ul> <li><strong>跌勢：</strong>當快線與慢線都處於零線下方，那產品一般處於跌勢當中。</li> </ul> <img alt="跌勢中的MACD" src="/getmedia/5e6e02ed-3d6f-4201-ad81-7b6eae188c5d/macd-in-a-downtrend.png" title="跌勢中的MACD" width="100%" /> <p> </p> <p> </p> <div class="macd-cta-banner"> <style type="text/css">.macd-cta-banner { background-image: url(/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/TW_culture_images/Article%20Image%20Knowledge%20Hub%20TW/MACD-Tips-banner-bg-v2.png); 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margin: 0px; z-index: 0; } .macd-cta-banner>div>a { display: block; width: 198px; height: 47px; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 10; border-bottom: none !important; } .macd-cta-banner>div>a>p { opacity: 0; pointer-events: none; -webkit-user-select: none; -moz-user-select: none; user-select: none; width: 100%; height: 100%; } </style> <p>MACD 除了非常適合用於傳統的股票交易，也同樣可以融入到其他金融產品的短線交易當中，其中一種最受歡迎的便是高槓桿的外匯交易。<br /> <br /> 通過槓桿外匯交易，我們僅需使用小量保證金便可操作更大額度，但隨之也帶來風險。運用 MACD 指標便可提升精確度、降低風險，助您在波動市場中穩健操作。</p> <div><img src="/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/TW_culture_images/Article%20Image%20Knowledge%20Hub%20TW/MACD-Tips-banner-btn.png" /> <a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/trading-academy/forex/what-is-forex-margin/" target="_blank"> </a> <p><a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/trading-academy/forex/what-is-forex-margin/" target="_blank">點擊了解外匯保證金</a></p> <a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/trading-academy/forex/what-is-forex-margin/" target="_blank"> </a></div> </div> <p> </p> <h3>2. 如何使用MACD黃金交叉與死亡交叉找出買賣點？</h3> <p>使用MACD指標尋找買賣點是最普遍的一種分析方法。通過找出黃金交叉或者死亡交叉，我們便能找到做多點與做空點。下圖是以<a href="/tw/eur-usd/" target="_blank">EUR/USD</a>為例的示範：</p> <img alt="MACD黃金交叉" src="/getmedia/8b5f9238-522f-4131-9d13-7bb6498a78df/macd-golden-cross.png" title="MACD黃金交叉" width="100%" /> <p>當快線（藍線）從下方往上突破慢線（橙線），便被稱為黃金交叉，是一個很好的買入或做多信號參考</p> <img alt="MACD死亡交叉" src="/getmedia/9d8c8d24-6fc6-4f45-b638-b93f1ff33804/macd-death-cross.png" title="MACD死亡交叉" width="100%" /> <p>當快線（藍線）從上方往下跌破慢線（橙線），便被稱為死亡交叉，是一個很好的賣出或<a href="/tw/trading-academy/terminologies/short-selling/" target="_blank">做空</a>信號參考。<br /> </p> <ul> <li>MACD黃金交叉</li> <li>MACD死亡交叉</li> </ul> <h3>3. 如何通過MACD指標背離找出趨勢轉折點？</h3> <p>這是MACD指標的進階使用方法。當價格走勢和MACD指標之間所呈現的趨勢不一致時，便有機會出現MACD背離的情況。簡單地說，投資者的情緒與觀點對價格趨勢的看法發生了變化，他們認為該金融產品的價格不符合其實際價值。<br /> <br /> MACD<a href="/tw/trading-academy/tech-indicators/bullish-and-bearish-divergence/" target="_blank">背離</a>的出現是一種警示，可以被分為兩種，為投資者提供一個潛在的買賣信號：</p> <img alt="MACD頂背離" src="/getmedia/32eab769-c964-4436-a852-6578b27d6803/macd-bearish-divergence.png" title="MACD頂背離" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 當價格一波高於一波，但MACD線一波低於一波，便會形成<strong>頂背離</strong>。這代表了價格上升的勢頭在減弱，代表市場其實對後一波的價格上漲包懷疑態度，所以在頂背離出現後的死亡交叉也可以被視作一種<strong>賣出/做空信號</strong>。</p> <img alt="MACD底背離" src="/getmedia/001a1468-ad36-4711-a0d8-a50af637ad79/macd-bullish-divergence.png" title="MACD底背離" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 當價格一波低於一波，但MACD線則一波高於一波時，便會形成<strong>底背離</strong>。這代表價格下跌的趨勢已經減緩，當下市場認為後出現的一波下跌可能可以回購，從而在底背離發生後的黃金交叉被認為是一種<strong>買入/做多的信號</strong>。<br /> </p> <ul> <li>頂背離（高檔背離）</li> <li>底背離（抵擋背離）</li> </ul> <h2 class="webinar-popup-trigger-element">如何將MACD 指標導入到圖表當中？</h2> <p>從本段開始我們將會進入實際演示並將MACD與其他<a href="/tw/trading-academy/tech-indicators/" target="_blank">技術指標</a>組合在一起使用，但在那之前，先看看我們該怎麼把MACD指標導入到我們的圖表當中。<br /> <br /> 本次展示將會使用到智匯ThinkMarkets獨家研發的<a href="/tw/thinktrader/" target="_blank">ThinkTrader交易平台</a>。ThinkTrader平台內置了<a href="/tw/trading-view-thinktrader/" target="_blank">Tradingview的圖表頁面</a>，同時可使用多個技術指標組合，更容易操作。只需五分鐘註冊便可免費使用ThinkTrader交易平台。<br /> </p> <p><br /> 那接下來我們將進入到導出MACD指標的教學中：<br /> <br /> 步驟一：在註冊好ThinkMarkets帳號後登入交易面板 > 進入圖表界面 > 在圖表界面右上方點擊“指標&策略”後彈出指標跳窗。</p> <img alt="進入智匯指標與策略界面" src="/getmedia/5d976924-d360-4465-aac7-22a19d1f119f/enter-the-thinktrader-indicators-and-strategies-interface.png" title="進入智匯指標與策略界面" width="100%" /> <p> </p> <p>步驟二：在技術指標跳窗內的搜索欄上打出“MACD” > 點擊“平滑異同移動平均線（MACD）”。</p> <img alt="在智匯平台上搜索MACD指標" src="/getmedia/b230be6f-2d5b-45c6-b8da-b2a1f42ccefa/search-for-the-macd-indicator-on-thinktrader.png" title="在智匯平台上搜索MACD指標" width="100%" /> <p> </p> <p>在完成以上步驟後，我們將在價格圖表下方看到額外的一個圖表，此圖所展示的便是MACD指標。</p> <img alt="價格下方的MACD指標" src="/getmedia/96e87bd2-2981-4d72-a022-0b195c9fade1/macd-indicator-below-the-price-chart.png" title="價格下方的MACD指標" width="100%" /> <p> </p> <div class="lr-v1-container" id="lr-v1-1"> <style type="text/css">.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-cta,.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container p{font-family:"Noto Sans TC";font-style:normal;color:#0e1d31!important}.lr-v1-container{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;height:100px;width:100%;background-color:#f2f6f6;box-sizing:border-box;padding:20px 29px;border-radius:15px}.lr-v1-container *{margin:0;padding:0}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:0}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container .lr-v1-subtitle{font-weight:400;font-size:14px;line-height:25px}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container .lr-v1-title{font-weight:900;font-size:23px;line-height:37px}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-cta{width:112px;height:40px;background-color:#5ee15a;border-radius:4px;display:flex;justify-content:center;align-items:center;font-weight:600;font-size:16px;line-height:24px;text-decoration:none !important;} .small-view #lr-v1-1{ flex-direction: column; height: fit-content; } .small-view #lr-v1-1 .lr-v1-text-container{ align-items: center; } .small-view #lr-v1-1 .lr-v1-cta{ margin-top: 16px; } </style> <div class="lr-v1-text-container"> <p class="lr-v1-subtitle">超過100個專業技術分析工具</p> <p class="lr-v1-title">在ThinkTrader使用各種技術指標</p> </div> <a class="lr-v1-cta" href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/register/live?lang=zh-Hant">註冊帳戶</a></div> <h2><span style="text-align: center;">MACD指標的參數調整</span></h2> <p>MACD參數調整屬於進階版的MACD使用方式。通過微調MACD的參數，我們能把MACD與特定金融產品的適配度變高。</p> <img alt="點擊MACD設置" src="/getmedia/b31dbfd1-99ba-4bf8-864f-94620365850a/click-to-set-up-macd.png" title="點擊MACD設置" width="100%" /> <p> </p> <p>如果想調整參數，可通過點擊MACD設置進入設置彈窗便可開始調整參數。</p> <img alt="MACD的各種參數設置" src="/getmedia/ada1e45b-a26d-47e1-8e02-3222bd8e3a4b/macd-parameter-settings.png" title="MACD的各種參數設置" width="75%" /> <p><br /> 所有圖表軟體的MACD指標默認的參數都是12、26、9，這被認為是MACD的最佳參數，它們所代表的意思分別是：<br /> </p> <ul> <li>快線長度：EMA短期平均線的週期 （一般DIF線的短期參考均線是過去12根K線的移動平均價）</li> <li>慢線長度：EMA長期平均線的週期（一般DIF線的長期參考均線是過去26根K線的移動平均價）</li> <li>信號長度：MACD信號線長度（一般信號線是過去9根K線的MACD線值的移動平均值）</li> </ul> <p>但是，MACD參數設定也可以根據不同金融產品的性質和交易員本身的需求而進行優化。 <br /> </p> <ul> <li>在更高波動的市場中，可以考慮用較短的時間段</li> <li>在少波動的市場中，可以使用較長的時間段</li> </ul> <h2>MACD指標與其他指標組合</h2> <p>由於MACD是一種落後指標（滯後指標），所以大部分交易員都會將MACD與其他指標或者<a href="/tw/trading-academy/chart-patterns/support-and-resistance/" target="_blank">支撐阻力線</a>組合後使用。其中一種最普遍且容易的用法便是<strong>MACD 與支撐阻力線一起使用</strong>。<br /> <br /> 接下來便帶大家怎麼一步一步地把支撐阻力線與MACD指標組合在一起使用：<br /> </p> <h3>步驟1：找出圖表阻力與支撐</h3> <img alt="找出支撐與阻力線" src="/getmedia/5aa27d62-a8f8-4926-acb8-522e2bf58d8c/identify-support-and-resistance-lines.png" title="找出支撐與阻力線" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 在我們選擇的圖表中，找出阻力線與支撐線，給我們有一個概念價格會在哪些地方有機會阻力回調或者支撐反彈。<br /> </p> <h3>步驟2：導入並觀察MACD指標，找出入場點</h3> <img alt="導入MACD" src="/getmedia/d85506cc-2dd2-4ca4-9d0a-e933adc10840/import-macd-indicator.png" title="導入MACD" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 如果我們是看多可以在支撐線的區域等待黃金交叉的出現。一旦黃金交叉出現，便能進行做多交易。在做多之後，把止損點設置在支撐線的下方。<br /> </p> <h3>步驟3：決定賣出點，止損點</h3> <img alt="找出賣出點" src="/getmedia/28171361-c188-48fe-8dff-19c9596346b9/identify-sell-points.png" title="找出賣出點" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 在買入後，如果在基本面不變的情況下，耐心等待。直到價錢觸碰到阻力線的時候平倉。如果想等死亡交叉後再平倉很可能會因為滯後效果而少賺一些。</p> <h2>總結</h2> <p>MACD是一款學習價值極高的技術指標。基於上面說述，MACD一種指標便可以設計出多種交易策略。即便不以MACD指標作為主力，亦可以把其變成一個輔助分析。通過<a href="/tw/" target="_blank">智匯</a>學習MACD，可以更容易地培養我們的邏輯思維，更好地掌握如何去做策略設計以及優化。<br /> <br /> 另外，如果以後有想要自己研發指標，MACD指標作為參考也很有學習價值。如果想在交易裡更有效率地應用MACD，實戰訓練是最快的捷徑。快通過智匯註冊並在ThinkTrader模擬賬號開始練習吧！<br /> </p> <div class="lr-v1-container" id="lr-v1-1"> <style type="text/css">.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-cta,.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container p{font-family:"Noto Sans TC";font-style:normal;color:#0e1d31!important}.lr-v1-container{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;height:100px;width:100%;background-color:#f2f6f6;box-sizing:border-box;padding:20px 29px;border-radius:15px}.lr-v1-container *{margin:0;padding:0}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:0}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container .lr-v1-subtitle{font-weight:400;font-size:14px;line-height:25px}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-text-container .lr-v1-title{font-weight:900;font-size:23px;line-height:37px}.lr-v1-container .lr-v1-cta{width:112px;height:40px;background-color:#5ee15a;border-radius:4px;display:flex;justify-content:center;align-items:center;font-weight:600;font-size:16px;line-height:24px;text-decoration:none !important;} .small-view #lr-v1-1{ flex-direction: column; 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斐波那契教學：如何利用斐波那契回撤優化交易策略？
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url(/TMXWebsite/media/TMXWebsite/TW_culture_images/Article%20Image%20Knowledge%20Hub%20TW/5-minutes-registration-with-thinkmarkets.webp); width: 100%; background-size: cover; background-repeat: no-repeat; display: flex; overflow: unset; height: 354px; } @media (max-width: 599px) { #registration-with-thinkmarkets-container { height: 212px; } } .scroll-to-top { bottom: 165px !important; } #social-channels { bottom: 108px !important; } /*# sourceMappingURL=custom3.css.map */ </style> <section id="sticky-article-panel"> <div class="desktop-element"> <p class="sticky-panel-subtitle">智匯專屬交易工具</p> <p class="sticky-panel-title">ThinkTrader</p> <div> <p class="sticky-panel-subtitle">內置Tradingview工具</p> </div> </div> <div class="mobile-element"> <p class="sticky-panel-title">學習如何使用斐波那契</p> </div> <a class="sticky-panel-button desktop-element" href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual?lang=zh-Hant">免費註冊帳戶</a> <a class="sticky-panel-button mobile-element" href="https://portal.thinkmarkets.com/account/individual?lang=zh-Hant">立即註冊</a> <svg fill="none" id="sticky-panel-background-decoration" viewbox="0 0 459 406" width="322" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M59.0344 136.685L54.2226 134.902L67.6504 326.627L376.343 312.625L365.005 0.999813L362.436 6.0249C359.866 11.05 354.726 21.1001 347.106 23.6187C339.486 26.1373 329.385 21.1243 322.11 24.6915C314.836 28.2587 310.387 40.406 304.809 49.1277C299.232 57.8494 292.527 63.1453 285.038 66.0626C277.549 68.9799 269.277 69.5186 260.435 68.3283C251.594 67.138 242.183 64.2188 234.706 67.1731C227.23 70.1274 221.688 78.9551 213.33 79.2355C204.973 79.5159 193.801 71.2489 186.316 74.1772C178.831 77.1055 175.032 91.2291 169.704 100.706C164.376 110.183 157.517 115.014 147.811 111.199C138.105 107.384 125.552 94.9233 116.981 94.5552C108.41 94.1871 103.822 105.911 98.8378 116.434C93.8536 126.957 88.4736 136.277 80.9718 139.155C73.4699 142.033 63.8463 138.467 59.0344 136.685Z" 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offset="1" stop-color="#5EE15A" stop-opacity="0"></stop> </lineargradient> </defs> </svg></section> <p>作為金融市場中最為常用的技術分析指標之一，斐波那契回撤如何幫助投資人做出明智的投資決策呢？本文將詳細講解什麼是斐波那契回撤，如何把斐波那契回撤融入到我們的交易策略中以及簡單講解其他斐波那契指標。</p> <p><br /> 在開始講解斐波那契作為技術指標的應用前，我們必須先了解什麼是斐波那契數列和黃金分割率。</p> <h2>斐波那契是什麼？</h2> <p>在還未把斐波那契融入到我們的交易策略前，我們必須先了解斐波那契的基本訊息：</p> <h3>1. 什麼是斐波那契數列？</h3> <p>斐波那契數列（Fibonacci sequence）也稱為費氏數列，由意大利數學家列昂納多·斐波那契（Leonardo Fibonacci） 在其著作《計算之書》（Liber Abaci）中首次引入。該數列從 0 和 1 開始，每一個數字都是前兩個數字之和，形成以下的序列：<br /> </p> <style type="text/css">.small-view .article-image{ width: 100%; } .medium-view .article-image{ width: 70%; } .large-view .article-image{ width: 70%; } </style> <img alt="斐波那契數列" class="article-image" src="/getmedia/2d1667a6-cf19-47b2-9cb9-e955989b8564/fibo-02-sequance.png" title="斐波那契數列" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 這個數列最初是用來解釋兔子繁殖的數學問題，但隨著時間的推移，它的應用逐漸擴展到自然科學、藝術設計，甚至金融市場。<br /> </p> <h3>2. 什麼是斐波那契黃金分割率？</h3> <img alt="黃金分割率" class="article-image" src="/getmedia/a7caa06d-7d74-4758-9a57-9b4e23b47cc6/fibo-03-golden-ratio.png" title="黃金分割率" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 黃金分割率（Golden ratio），是數學界中一個非常重要的常數，通常以希臘字母 φ（phi）來表示。黃金分割率的數學定義是當一個數列或形狀分割為兩部分，較大部分與整體的比例，等於較小部分與較大部分的比例時，這個比例被稱為黃金分割率。</p> <img alt="黃金分割率數學公式" class="article-image" src="/getmedia/55b8e1b2-4303-4573-b3df-5c0c9887c503/fibo-04-fomula.png" title="黃金分割率數學公式" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 在斐波那契數列中，隨著數列的延伸，相鄰兩個數字的比例逐漸趨近於 0.618。而 0.618 的倒數（1/0.618）為 1.618，稱為黄金比例。</p> <h2>什麼是斐波那契技術指標？</h2> <p>斐波那契和黃金分割率在金融市場中有著廣泛的技術分析應用，長被用於<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/forex-trading/" target="_blank">外匯交易</a>，股票交易，以及期貨交易中。普遍的斐波那契指標包括斐波那契回撤、斐波那契趨勢擴展、斐波那契通道、斐波那契圈等等。<br /> </p> <h3>1. 斐波那契回撤怎麼看？</h3> <p>斐波那契回撤（Fibonacci retracement）是一種基於斐波那契數列的技術分析工具，用於識別價格趨勢中的<strong>潛在支撐位和阻力位</strong>。</p> <img alt="斐波那契回撤" src="/getmedia/298ed25f-df51-422d-a46c-1d75f86a7f59/fibo-05-retracement.png" title="斐波那契回撤" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 上圖顯示斐波那契回撤在k線圖當中的應用，我們可以看到斐波那契回撤中有多個不同的分割線，包括0.236、0.382、0.5、0.618、0.786等等。這些分割線中特定的比例代表著什麼？他們又是如何計算出來的呢？<br /> </p> <ul> <li>0.236：代表回測約23.6%，表示較淺的回調，通常在強勁的趨勢中出現。</li> <li>0.382：代表回測約38.2%，常見的回調區域之一，適合關注可能的支撐或阻力。</li> <li>0.5：代表回測50%，雖然不是斐波那契數列中的正式比例，但被廣泛應用。</li> <li>0.618：代表回測約61.8%，是最關鍵的斐波那契比例，亦被稱為黃金分割線/黃金分割率。</li> <li>0.786：代表回測約78.6%，深度回撤，接近完全回撤的水平，價格在此反轉後可能形成大幅波動。</li> </ul> <h3>2. 斐波那契趨勢擴展怎麼看？</h3> <p>除了斐波那契回撤，另一種最常用的斐波那契指標就是斐波那契趨勢擴展（Fibonacci extension）。斐波那契擴展是用於預測價格突破某一水平後，下一個潛在目標價位。<br /> </p> <img alt="斐波那契趨勢擴展" src="/getmedia/ab43adbd-59fa-4893-991e-a01d84079e86/fibo-06-extention.png" title="斐波那契趨勢擴展" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 斐波那契趨勢擴張常見的比例包括1、1.272、1.618、2、2.618等等。<br /> </p> <h3>3. 其他斐波那契技術指標</h3> <p>除了最常見的斐波那契回撤和斐波那契趨勢擴展以外，其他基於斐波那契的技術指標包括斐波那契通道、斐波那契時間周期、斐波那契速度阻力扇、斐波那契趨勢時間、斐波那契圈、斐波那契螺旋、斐波那契速度阻力弧、斐波那契楔形、傾斜扇形等等。</p> <img alt="斐波那契相關的指標" class="article-image" src="/getmedia/23315518-3061-42bf-96a7-aa6d93e8ac01/fibo-07-related-indicators.png" title="斐波那契相關的指標" width="100%" /> <p> </p> <ul> <li>斐波那契通道（Fibonacci channel）：用於建立隨趨勢運行的通道，捕捉價格可能的波動範圍。</li> <li>斐波那契時間周期（Fibonacci time zone）：用於測量時間的變化，預測未來可能的反轉點。</li> <li>斐波那契速度阻力扇（Fibonacci speed resistance fan）：用於顯示趨勢延續或回撤中的支撐和阻力。</li> <li>斐波那契趨勢時間（Trend-based fibonacci time）：用於長期趨勢中標記潛在的時間反轉點。</li> <li>斐波那契圈（Fibonacci circles）：將價格和時間結合，用於找尋支撐和阻力的結構。</li> <li>斐波那契螺旋（Fibonacci spiral）：結合數列生成的螺旋形狀，用於捕捉市場中具幾何意義的區域。</li> <li>斐波那契速度阻力弧（Fibonacci speed resistance arcs）：用於識別價格運動的支撐和阻力的弧形區域。</li> <li>斐波那契楔形（Fibonacci wedge）：用於分析價格運動在楔形內的行為。</li> <li>傾斜扇形（Pitchfan）：與速度阻力扇相似，但角度是傾斜的。</li> </ul> <h2>斐波那契回測怎麼畫？</h2> <p>僅了解如何使用斐波那契回撤是不夠的，能正確繪製斐波那契回撤線才是關鍵。這裡我們會以ThinkTrader交易平台為例子向大家展示如何在圖表當中劃出斐波那契回測。<br /> <br /> 用<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/thinktrader/" target="_blank">ThinkTrader</a>的原因是其免費提供了TradingView的繪圖工具，對新手交易員來說較為友好。大家可以通過註冊ThinkMarkets帳號後便可免費使用ThinkTrader交易平台。<br /> <br /> </p> <div class="lr-v3-container"> <style type="text/css">.lr-v3-container { display: flex; justify-content: space-between; 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id="paint1_linear_325_4515" x1="498.65" x2="889.595" y1="74.5669" y2="-33.9119"> <stop stop-color="#5EE15A"></stop> <stop offset="1" stop-color="white"></stop> </lineargradient> <clippath id="clip0_325_4515"> <rect fill="white" height="120" width="664"></rect> </clippath> </defs> </svg></div> <h3><br /> 1. 打開ThinkTrader交易平台</h3> <p>在註冊完ThinkMarksts帳號後，便可在<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/" target="_blank">ThinkMarkets官網</a>的右上方選擇「登錄」，隨後點擊「ThinkTrader網頁平台」。</p> <style type="text/css">.small-view #fibo-08-log-in-thinktrader{ width: 100%; } .medium-view #fibo-08-log-in-thinktrader{ width: 70%; } .large-view #fibo-08-log-in-thinktrader{ width: 80%; } </style> <img alt="進入ThinkTrader平台" id="fibo-08-log-in-thinktrader" src="/getmedia/81cdebb2-9b88-4ec8-8d27-f2790996b899/fibo-08-log-in-thinktrader.png" title="進入ThinkTrader平台" width="100%" /> <h3><br /> 2. 選擇斐波那契回撤指標</h3> <p>在登錄到ThinkTrader網頁平台後，用戶可以在圖表左方選擇「斐波那契回撤」。</p> <img alt="導入斐波那契回測" class="article-image" src="/getmedia/a2cdfe7f-4c35-44da-83b5-8fb92e0b6438/fibo-09-guide-min.png" title="導入斐波那契回測" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 想要正確繪製斐波那契回撤，我們必須清晰找出當前的市場趨勢，以及準確判斷價格趨勢的最高點與最低點。</p> <br /> <img alt="如何畫斐波那契回測" src="/getmedia/73ca08e4-0f68-4580-8afb-7113b963e3c3/fibo-10-drawing-gudie.png" title="如何畫斐波那契回測" width="100%" /> <p><br /> 以上圖為例，<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/usd-chf/" target="_blank">美元兌瑞士法郎</a>出現了明顯的上升趨勢。在出現回調後，我們需要從圖表中迅速找出趨勢的高低點。因此，我們從9月6日的低點0.8374開始繪製，一直到11月22日的高點0.8957。</p> <h2>斐波那契回撤的交易策略</h2> <p>斐波那契回撤在不同的場景中都有著不同的應用策略，例如在上升趨勢和下跌趨勢中，斐波那契回撤的應用略有差別。接下來，我們詳細講解斐波那契回撤在不同場景下的應用。<br /> </p> <h3>1. 上升趨勢中的斐波那契回撤應用</h3> <p>在開始使用斐波那契回撤前，我們需要先確認圖表中的主要波段。首先，我們從價格圖表中找出一個明顯且具有代表性的上漲或下跌趨勢段，通常是一個完整的高低波段，例如從一個明顯的低點拉升到一個高點，或者從一個高點下跌至一個低點。<br /> </p> <img alt="上升趨勢中的斐波那契回撤應用" class="article-expandable-image" src="/getmedia/7cee6193-d8e3-4dea-9cec-5c154eda6257/fibo-11-in-uptrend.png" title="上升趨勢中的斐波那契回撤應用" width="100%" /> <p><br /> <br /> 以上圖為例，<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/hong-kong-50-index/" target="_blank">恆生指數（HK50）</a>出現了一個明顯的上升波段，由16400點上漲至23200點。在圖表中添加了斐波那契回撤後，10月8日到14日期間，恆生指數在0.382的分割線得到了明顯的支撐。<br /> <br /> 在跌破了0.382的支撐後，恆生指數往下試探0.5的支撐位，隨後在0.5的支撐位迅速反彈。<br /> <br /> 11月12日，恆生指數在跌破了0.5的支撐後下跌至0.618的重大支撐，隨後迅速反彈至0.5的關鍵價位。我們可以看到，恆生指數在這一波回調當中，斐波那契回撤的分割線展現除了明顯的用處。</p> <p> </p> <h3>2. 下跌趨勢中的斐波那契回撤應用</h3> <p>在下跌趨勢中使用斐波那契回撤與上升趨勢相似，但在繪製時需要由趨勢的高點開始進行繪製。<br /> </p> <img alt="下跌趨勢中的斐波那契回撤應用" class="article-expandable-image" src="/getmedia/80c9cb60-dc1a-4223-a10f-384891e58852/fibo-12-in-downtrend.png" title="下跌趨勢中的斐波那契回撤應用" width="100%" /> <p><br /> <br /> 以上圖<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/eur-usd/" target="_blank">歐元兌美元</a>為例，歐元兌美元在明顯的下跌趨勢中出現了反彈，此時我們需要迅速找出趨勢的高低點並繪製斐波那契回撤。隨後，我們可以看到，歐元兌美元在反彈至每個分割線時都遭到不同程度的阻力。</p> <p> </p> <h3>3. 斐波那契回撤配合移動平均線</h3> <p>單純使用斐波那契回撤可能會出現假信號，因此許多交易員會搭配其他指標或形態來進行確認，例如配合趨勢線（Trend line）、移動平均線（MA）、相對強弱指數（RSI）、<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/trading-academy/tech-indicators/macd/" target="_blank">平滑異同移動平均線（MACD）</a>等等。<br /> </p> <img alt="斐波那契回調與移動平均" class="article-expandable-image" src="/getmedia/7fd1497c-ff99-4293-9aa1-165bfe262399/fibo-13-and-ma.png" title="斐波那契回調與移動平均" width="100%" /> <p><br /> <br /> 以上圖為例，歐元兌美元在反彈至0.236上方後得到了明顯的支撐，同時移動平均線（MA）出現了黃金交叉，表示了短期趨勢有進一步反彈的跡象。此時交易員可以考慮做多歐元兌美元，並關注下一個0.382的阻力位。</p> <h2>斐波那契回撤的優勢與缺點</h2> <p>斐波那契回撤是技術分析中常用的工具，但它也有一些不足之處。了解斐波那契回撤的優勢和缺點有助於交易員在實際操作中更好的發揮其功能。</p> <h3>1. 斐波那契回撤的優勢</h3> <ul> <li>簡單直觀，容易上手：斐波那契回撤工具直觀地將價格分割為支撐價位和反壓價位，即使是新手交易員也能輕鬆使用。</li> <li>多市場適用：斐波那契回撤適用於多種市場，包括股票、外匯、大宗商品、加密貨幣等。</li> <li>與其他技術指標的高度兼容性：斐波那契比例可以與多種技術分析工具結合，如移動平均線、<a href="https://www.thinkmarkets.com/tw/trading-academy/tech-indicators/rsi/" target="_blank">相對強弱指數（RSI）</a>等，進一步提升分析的準確性。</li> <li>適用於多時間框架：斐波那契回撤可以應用於不同的時間框架，從分鐘圖到週線圖均有效。這讓交易員能根據不同的交易風格靈活運用。</li> </ul> <h3>2. 斐波那契回撤的缺點</h3> <ul> <li>高度主觀性：斐波那契回撤的高點和低點標註完全依賴交易員的判斷，這導致不同的交易者可能得出截然不同的回撤比例。</li> <li>過多水平可能混淆判斷：斐波那契回撤有多個潛在阻力和支撐位，價格可能在任一水平反彈或突破，這可能讓新手交易員搞到困惑。</li> <li>過於依賴歷史數據：斐波那契的分析基於過去的價格高低點，無法預測未來價格的具體方向，需搭配其他分析手段使用。</li> </ul> <h2>總結</h2> <p>斐波那契回調是一個高度主觀性的技術分析法，如果想在圖表中引用這項分析，我們必須先了解該金融產品的習性，正處於趨勢中的哪個階段，才能更好地預測趨勢回測的幅度到底有多大。<br /> <br /> 如果能與其他的技術指標融會貫通那會更好。想達到這種程度必須有經驗的累積，對產品的了解以及不斷的嘗試。<br /> <br /> 如果大家想開始嘗試自己手動學習怎麼應用斐波那契技術分析，可以註冊並進入測試帳號免費學習怎麼操作優化。<br /> </p> <div class="lr-v3-container"> <style type="text/css">.lr-v3-container { display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; height: 120px; width: 100%; background-color: #F2F6F6; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 41px 40px 40px 40px; border-radius: 15px; position: relative; } .lr-v3-container * { margin: 0; padding: 0; } .lr-v3-container .lr-v3-text-container { display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 3px; position: relative; z-index: 1; } .lr-v3-container .lr-v3-text-container p { font-family: "Noto Sans TC"; font-style: normal; color: #0E1D31 !important; } .lr-v3-container .lr-v3-text-container .lr-v3-title { font-weight: 700; font-size: 28px; line-height: 40.54px; 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