TWForex
One of the most directly affected by presidential elections is the forex market.
In the US, while the Federal Reserve is independent, the sitting US president can still exert political pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to get the monetary policy that aligns well with their vision.
In the US, while the Federal Reserve is independent, the sitting US president can still exert political pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to get the monetary policy that aligns well with their vision.
EUR/USD
The global sentiment on candidates and the eventual winner directly correlates to the perceived strength of the country’s currency. US candidates appearing weak can cast doubts on the future of the dollar. For instance, the general consensus right now is that a Trump return would result in a lower dollar and a rise in EUR/ USD.
The policies proposed by presidential candidates can significantly influence the EUR/USD pair. For example, expansionary fiscal policies might strengthen the USD, causing the EUR/USD to tumble.
Elections bring uncertainty, leading to volatility in EUR/USD as traders react to the latest polls and candidate statements. Take note of the dates above to plan your trades.
The policies proposed by presidential candidates can significantly influence the EUR/USD pair. For example, expansionary fiscal policies might strengthen the USD, causing the EUR/USD to tumble.
Elections bring uncertainty, leading to volatility in EUR/USD as traders react to the latest polls and candidate statements. Take note of the dates above to plan your trades.
GBP/USD
The election outcome can shape US-UK relations, impacting trade agreements and economic policies, thus affecting GBP/USD. With the US president having a direct hand to play in international relations, UK-leaning candidates can cause GBP to strengthen.
Other USD pairs
Other currency pairs involving the USD respond to changes in global perception of the dollar, which can be influenced by election outcomes. If the US presidential elections are boosting investor sentiment on the dollar, forex pairs with USD as the base currency, i.e. USD/JPY, are likely to increase. Meanwhile, currency pairs with USD as the quote currency, i.e. EUR/USD, will likely decrease. The opposite holds true if the elections go sideways and investors choose to abandon the dollar.
US stocks
The US presidential elections can significantly affect various sectors of the stock market based on the policy suggestions of the candidates.
Healthcare sector
Policies related to healthcare reform or pharmaceutical regulations can impact healthcare stocks. A candidate favouring stringent healthcare regulations might lead to a decline in pharmaceutical stocks.
Energy sector
Proposals regarding the regulation of renewable energy or fossil fuels can lead to market volatility on energy stocks. A candidate promoting green energy might boost renewable energy stocks while potentially negatively impacting traditional energy companies. This may also affect commodities, such as WTI and BRENT.
Technology sector
Tech stocks may be influenced by policies regarding data privacy, antitrust issues, or trade relations with countries important to tech supply chains.
Proposals regarding international trade, especially with tech-heavy regions like Asia, can have a significant impact. For instance, a candidate proposing strict trade policies or tariffs could lead to volatility in tech stocks, affecting companies reliant on global supply chains. Additionally, policies around data privacy and cybersecurity can influence investor confidence in tech companies, particularly those handling large amounts of user data.
Proposals regarding international trade, especially with tech-heavy regions like Asia, can have a significant impact. For instance, a candidate proposing strict trade policies or tariffs could lead to volatility in tech stocks, affecting companies reliant on global supply chains. Additionally, policies around data privacy and cybersecurity can influence investor confidence in tech companies, particularly those handling large amounts of user data.
Financial sector
The financial sector is sensitive to proposed changes in banking regulations and fiscal policies. A candidate advocating for tighter financial regulations may negatively impact banking stocks, as increased oversight could lead to higher operational costs.
Conversely, proposals for deregulation or tax reforms could boost investor sentiment in financial stocks, as these changes could potentially increase profitability for financial institutions.
Conversely, proposals for deregulation or tax reforms could boost investor sentiment in financial stocks, as these changes could potentially increase profitability for financial institutions.
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How do the US presidential elections affect the markets?
The US presidential elections have global implications that affect the financial markets. Traders often consider this period as a time of volatility and opportunity.
2024 US presidential elections timeline
Jan 9
Deadline for major parties to submit a list of candidates to the Secretary of State in Washington
Jan 15
Republican presidential caucus in Iowa
Feb 6
Nevada Democratic primary
Feb 24
Republican South Carolina primary
Mar 8
Maine Democratic caucuses
Mar 11
Tennessee Democratic primary
Mar 13
Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri Republican primaries
Mar 16
Arizona, Florida Republican primaries
Apr 6
Alaska, Hawaii, and North Dakota Democratic primaries
Apr 18-20
Wyoming Republican primary
Apr 28
Puerto Rico Democratic primary
May 10
Trial for United States v. Donald Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira set to begin
May 21
Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon
May 24-26
Libertarian National Convention scheduled to be held in Washington, D.C.
Jul 18-22
Republican National Convention, Charlotte, North Carolina
Aug 20-25
Democratic National Convention, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Aug 20-25
Democratic National Convention, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Jan 10
Fifth Republican presidential primary debate
Feb 3
South Carolina Democratic primary
Feb 8
Nevada Republican caucus
Mar 5
Super Tuesday
Mar 10
Louisiana primaries (Democrats and Republicans)
Mar 12
Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri Democratic primaries
Mar 15
Arizona, Florida Democratic primaries
Apr 2
Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin Democratic and Republican primaries
Apr 13
Wyoming Democratic caucuses
Apr 23
Pennsylvania Democratic and Republican primaries
May 7
Indiana Democratic and Republican primaries
May 14
Democratic primaries in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia
May 23
Idaho Democratic caucuses
Jun 4
Last primaries and caucuse
Jul 18-22
Republican National Convention, Charlotte, North Carolina
Aug 20-25
Democratic National Convention, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Nov 5
General election